1)    Very Severe Cyclonic Storm ‘OCKHI’ over eastcentral Arabian Sea

The very severe cyclonic storm ‘OCKHI’ over eastcentral Arabian Sea moved further north-northeastwards with a speed of 13 kmph during past 6 hours and lay centred at 1430 hrs IST of 04^th December, 2017 over eastcentral Arabian Sea near Latitude 15.2º N and Longitude 69.0º E, about 590 km southwest of Mumbai and 770 km south-southwest of Surat. It is very likely to continue to move north-northeastwards, weaken gradually and cross south Gujarat and adjoining north Maharashtra coasts near Surat as a deep depression by the night of tomorrow, the 5^th December 2017.

Track and intensity forecast of the system is given in the following table:

Date/Time(IST)

Position

(Lat. 0N/ long. 0E)

Maximum sustained surface 

wind speed (kmph)

Category of cyclonic disturbance

04/1430

15.2/69.0

120-130 GUSTING TO 145

04/1730

15.8/69.3

110-120 GUSTING TO 135

04/2330

16.5/69.8

100-110 GUSTING TO 120

05/0530

17.3/70.4

90-100 GUSTING TO 110

05/1130

18.4/71.2

70-80 GUSTING TO 90

05/2330

20.5/72.6

50-60 GUSTING TO 70

06/1130

22.3/73.8

35-45 GUSTING TO 55

Warning:

(i)           Heavy Rainfall:

·           Gujarat : Light to moderate rainfall is very likely at a few places over Saurashtra and south Gujarat region on 4^th December. Light to moderate rainfall at most places with heavy rainfall at isolated places is very likely over Saurashtra and south Gujarat region on 05^th December (Valsad, Surat, Navsari, Bharuch, Dang, Tapi, Amreli, Gir- Somnath, Bhavnagar, Diu, Daman, Dadra, and Nagar Haveli districts) and light to moderate rainfall over Gujarat region at many places on 6th December.

·           Maharashtra: Light to moderate rainfall is very likely at a few places over north Konkan including Mumbai on 4^th December. Light to moderate rainfall at most places with isolated heavy rainfall is also likely over north Konkan on 5^th December (Palghar, Thane, Raigarh, Greater Mumbai, Dhule, Nandurbar, Nashik, Jalgaon, Ahmednagar and Pune districts).

(ii)       Wind:

• Squally wind speed reaching 50-60 kmph gusting to 70 kmph very likely along & off north Maharashtra and South Gujarat coasts from today, the 4^th night to 6^th December 2017 morning.

(ii)          Sea condition:

·      Sea condition would be rough to very rough along & off north Maharashtra and South Gujarat coasts from today, the 4^th night to 6^th December 2017 morning.

(iii)         Damage Expected over south Gujarat (Valsad, Surat, Navsari, Bharuch, Dang, Tapi, Amreli, Gir- Somnath, Bhavnagar districts), Daman, Diu, and Dadra, Nagar Haveli and north Konkan Districts of Maharashtra (Palghar, Thane, Raigarh, and Greater Mumbai):

Minor damage to loose / unsecured structures. Minor damage to Banana trees. Some damage to agriculture near coast due to salt spray. Damage to ripe paddy crops. Minor damage to Kutcha embankments.

(iv)         Action suggested

·      South Gujarat and north Maharashtra coasts: Fishermen are advised not to venture into the Sea along & off South Gujarat and north Maharashtra coasts from 4^th December to 6^th morning.

2.         Well Marked low pressure area over Southeast Bay of Bengal:

A well marked low pressure area lies over southeast Bay of Bengal and adjoining south Andaman Sea. It is very likely to become a depression over southeast Bay of Bengal during next 24 hours and further intensify into a deep depression during subsequent 48 hours. It is very likely to move west-northwestwards towards north Tamilnadu - south Andhra Pradesh coasts during next 3 days.

Warning:

Heavy Rainfall:

·      Rainfall at most places with isolated heavy rainfall very likely over Nicobar Islands and rainfall at many places over Andaman Islands during next 3 days

·      Rainfall at many places with heavy falls at isolated places very likely over north Andhra Pradesh and south Odisha on 7^th and 8^th December, 2017.

Wind:

Squally winds speed reaching 30-40 kmph gusting to 50 kmph on 4^th, and 40-50 kmph gusting to 60 kmph on 5^th and 6^th December, 2017 very likely over and around Nicobar Islands and decrease thereafter.

Sea Condition:

Sea condition would be rough to very rough during 4^th to 6^th December, 2017 around Nicobar Islands.

Action suggested:

·           Fishermen along and off Nicobar Islands are advised not to venture into sea during 4^th to 6^th December, 2017.

·           Fishermen along and off Andhra Pradesh and Tamilnadu coasts are advised not to venture into sea during 6^th to 8^th December, 2017

RDS/CK